Chaos and Crises in International Systems

Nonlinear dynamical systems exhibit a very rich class of potential modes of behavior. Among them are order, crises, and chaos, all of which can coexist within a very small range of parameters. They may serve as paradigms for the complex new world order after the end of the cold war where scenarios of delicate crisis management will replace those of plain deterrence or retaliation. In this note we first try to give a very short overview of some basic elements of chaos theory. Then we discuss some work in relation to the application of chaos theory to arms race dynamics. Finally we give an outlook of the potential role of nonlinear dynamics and chaos in models for crisis management. Talk presented at: SHAPE Technology Symposium on crisis management, Mons, Belgium, 3/19-20/92 1On leave of absence from the Santa Fe Institute, 1660 Old Pecos Trail, Santa Fe New Mexico email: [email protected]  Gottfried Mayer-Kress, Mon Jan 25 1993,1